There cannot be a uniform peak in COVID-19 cases in a large country like India and each state has its own trajectory.
The peak could be witnessed in states like Delhi by this month end or early August while it may be around September in others such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka, Director of the Indian Institute of Public Health (IIPH) Prof. G V S Murthy said.
Murthy had established and headed the first Community Ophthalmology Department in the public sector in the country at the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences till 2010.
IIPH was set up under the aegis of the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI).
Key observations made by him are:
- In states such as Jharkhand it may take longer time as the spread has started only after the return of the migrant labourers.
- Bihar seemed to be reporting a large number of cases suddenly after all those who migrated to other cities, specifically Mumbai and Delhi, started returning.
- It takes about 10-14 days for a COVID-19 person to infect others in their families and then the next wave of cases will happen.
- States like Jharkhand (present total cases 7,564), Chattisgarh (6,819) and parts in eastern Uttar Pradesh too had reported much lower cases earlier but the spread would start occurring as the migrants have returned now to their homes. There, the peak will take much longer. It would be somewhere towards the end of September or October that those states which had low reporting earlier, will have a peak.
- All these states which were reporting very high numbers now, should not be getting the same numbers beyond mid- September.
- States like Haryana, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu should be able to achieve the maximum number of cases by mid September.
- Delhi seems to be on a path where, by the end of this month or early August, it can be said that the peak has been crossed.
- States, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh may reach the peak in September.
- The peak should occur in Tamil Nadu by the middle or the third week of August.
Governments need to continue with measures to deal with the virus and the community also should strictly adhere to preventive guidelines such as washing hands and maintaining physical distancing, he said and stressed on taking intense steps in densely populated areas.
The community should follow precautions, including wearing a mask, hand-washing and maintaining physical distance,the health expert said. If somebody has any doubt of infection, they should immediately seek medical attention. Gatherings should be avoided.
“As a community, we cannot put the entire onus on the government. As a community, it is our responsibility (to take the precautions),” he added.
